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Robert Reich
Friends,
What’s really going on with the economy?
I believe Trump and his billionaire buddies — the American oligarchy — have a plan. But before I get to it, let me point out what’s happened lately.
After days of consecutive declines on Wall Street, all three major U.S. stock indexes suddenly rose on reports that Kevin Hassett, a top Trump adviser, said the White House would consider a 90-day pause on putting tariffs on all countries but China.
Then, once it became clear that the speculation was based on a Fox News interview in which Hassett did not make that suggestion, markets quickly retreated again. The White House dismissed the report as “fake news.”
The extraordinary volatility captured more than Wall Street’s unease with Trump’s massive new tariffs. It also showed how ready speculators are to make money off the downturn.
Last Friday, Trump called on investors to buy low as markets plunged. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!” Trump said on Truth Social.
I don’t think Trump was referring to the current downdraft in stock prices. He was referring to the coming recession.
Last week’s stock sell-off wiped out roughly $6.6 trillion in value from corporations listed on American stock exchanges. The clear message coming out of stocks, bonds, oil, and the dollar is the growing risk of a recession.
On Friday, economists at JPMorgan, America’s largest bank by assets and market capitalization, put the odds of a coming recession at 60 percent, labeling Trump’s tariffs as the “largest tax increase” since 1968, which will “fall heavily on the U.S. consumer.”
We can’t count on the Fed to take measures to avoid this recession. As I’ve said before, the Fed cannot simultaneously fight the inflationary effects of the tariffs and the recessionary effects of a slowing economy. If it lowers interest rates, it invites more inflation. If it raises interest rates, it slows the economy further.
The Fed views its main job as fighting inflation, which means interest rates will remain relatively high. As Fed chief Jerome Powell emphasized late last week, “Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”
It seems clear that Trump is planning to blame any recession on Powell (and, of course, Joe Biden). As Trump wrote on Friday “Fed Chair Jerome Powell should “CUT INTEREST RATES … AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS.”
So a recession seems likely. The American economy will contract over the next six months.
This will cause massive hardship for lower-income Americans because they’re likely to be the first ones to lose their jobs — at the same time they’re paying more for much of what they need.
But a recession is not necessarily bad for Trump and his billionaire buddies. America’s oligarchy depends on periodic recessions.
Recessions are opportunities to buy up real estate, companies, and shares of stock at bargain-basement prices. Recessions also give political cover to Trump, Musk, and Republican efforts to reduce labor and environmental standards.
Also, remember the business cycle. A recession early in Trump’s term is politically better for Trump and his Republican allies than a recession later in the term.
I believe Trump’s plan is for a recession in 2025 so that he and his billionaire buddies can ride the wave of a recovery in 2026 — just in time for the midterm elections.
What do you think?
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